Update: 9:09 PM UPDATE 7/29: Despite the impacts of multiple CMEs, the magnetic field remains unfavorable. Abrupt changes could occur at anytime-but it may be a few to several hours until conditions become favorable for aurora, according to PA Weather Plus.
Skywatchers in the northern U.S. could get another glimpse of the northern lights this week, marking yet another auroral opportunity this month.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issued a geomagnetic storm watch Monday after an active weekend of space weather.
On late Sunday, the SWPC reported the observation of a strong solar flare with a strength reaching X1.5. They mentioned that it had the potential to impact Earth. Although not as powerful as the X5 flare reported earlier this year, it was still one of the strongest in 2024.
NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of a solar flare seen as the bright flash in the center on July 28, 2024. The above mage shows a subset of extreme ultraviolet light that highlights the extremely hot material in flares and which is colorized in yellow and orange. (NASA/SDO)
Solar flares are classified based on their strength, much like earthquakes, according to NASA.
The scale ranges from B-class on the lowest end to C-class, then M-class, and finally, X-class.
Each letter represents a ten-fold increase in energy output.
There is a scale of 1 to 9 in each class, except for X-class. X-class flares can exceed 9, with the largest-ever recorded being an X45 that occurred in 2003.
SWPC stated that the flare, along with other filament eruptions, was connected to coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It is anticipated that a number of these CMEs will impact Earth, leading to heightened geomagnetic activity and a higher likelihood of observing the aurora in the upcoming days.
CMEs, such as the ones predicted to arrive this week, trigger the phenomenon of the northern lights.
When plasma and magnetic material ejected from the sun during CMEs collide with Earth's magnetic field, they propel particles toward the North and South Poles.
When these particles interact with gases in the atmosphere, they generate excess energy, which manifests as bursts of light known as the aurora.
The visibility of the northern lights in the U.S. depends on the strength of the geomagnetic storm caused by solar activity.
Similar to tornadoes and hurricanes, geomagnetic storms are rated on a 5-point scale.
At the lower end is G1, which is considered minor but strong enough to cause the northern lights to be visible in the northern U.S., such as Maine and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. An extreme G5 storm could push the northern lights as far south as Florida and southern Texas.
As of Monday morning, the SWPC indicated that any CMEs reaching Earth on Monday might have a strength of G1, but most of the activity is expected on Tuesday. These CMEs could reach levels of G2 or G3.
Monday’s CMEs could bring the aurora into the northern U.S., according to SWPC’s forecast.
The areas shaded in red on the map, primarily Alaska and Canada, have the best chances of seeing the aurora on Monday. Additionally, the very northern portions of Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota may also witness the aurora.
The northern lights forecast for Monday, July 29, 2024. (NOAA SWPC)
Areas shaded in green, including parts of Washington, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine, have a lower chance of seeing the aurora.
Locations near the red view line on the map, such as Oregon, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, and New Hampshire, might still catch a glimpse of the northern lights shimmering on the northern horizon in Monday's forecast. Those states may, however, miss out on seeing the northern lights on Tuesday.
As of Monday, the SWPC is predicting that less of the U.S. will have a chance to see the northern lights. This forecast could change before Tuesday night.
With the exception of Alaska, there are no states shaded red for Tuesday’s forecast.
States shaded in green or near the view line include Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
Because it “takes time for CMEs to progress over and past Earth,” the SWPC said we could see geomagnetic impacts into Wednesday as well.
Additional solar flares reaching M-class are also expected this week, with a small potential for X-class flares.
This year has already seen several powerful geomagnetic storms, accompanied by periods of auroral activity. Some of these storms even brought the northern lights to Florida and Hawaii.
Although predicting these storms is challenging, experts anticipate that we will likely experience more of them in the coming year.
The sun is currently going through a solar cycle, an 11-year period in which it flips its poles. As it reaches the peak of the cycle, the sun also becomes far more active.
We may not reach solar maximum for a few months yet, Mark Miesch, a researcher with NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said. He also said that more strong solar storms are expected through the rest of this year, throughout 2025, and potentially even into 2026.
HOW TO VIEW THE AURORAS:
To be able to see the auroras, you will need a good view of the northern horizion, away from heavy light pollution. Smartphones & digital cameras will best pick up on the Northern Lights. Your eyes will need to adjust to the dark for at least 30 minutes.
Depending on the intensity of the storm, it may be hard to view with the eye at times.
Phones will do the trick!
BEST TIMING: 10 pm - 5 am (peak of the show is still highly uncertain).
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