Aurora chasers are on high alert for strong geomagnetic storm conditions now through Oct. 6, according to Space.com.
With strong geomagnetic storm conditions predicted, auroras could be visible deep into mid-latitudes (around 50°).
Due to two incoming solar storms, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center issued a G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm warning for Oct. 4 to Oct.6.
If the predicted G3 conditions are reached we could witness auroras as far south as Illinois and Oregon.
Image via Unsplash
Dan Nigro from smashomash.com predicts that the aurora will probably be visible early Saturday morning. However, the chances of seeing it are higher on Saturday night in the Lehigh Valley. Weather also plays a major part in seeing them. Clear skies make for better viewing.
Two powerful solar eruptions -
There are not just one but two powerful solar eruptions that hurled vast plumes of material toward Earth.
The eruptions occurred on Oct. 1 and Oct. 2nd - the latter being the biggest solar flare since 2017, according to space.com.
Each eruption was accompanied by a large plume of plasma and a magnetic field known as a coronal mass ejection (CME).
According to Space.com, when CMEs interact with Earth's magnetosphere, they bring electrically charged particles called ions that collide with Earth's magnetic field. These collisions can spark geomagnetic storms. During such storms, ions slam into atmospheric gases, releasing energy that appears as light. This phenomenon is observed as the northern lights, or aurora borealis, in the Northern Hemisphere, and the southern lights, or aurora australis, in the Southern Hemisphere.
With two CMEs on their way, geomagnetic storm prospects look promising - However, the exact timings are difficult to determine due to the complex nature of modeling their behavior.
Geomagnetic storms are classified by NOAA using a G-scale to measure the intensity of geomagnetic storms. They range from G5 (the most extreme class) to G1 (minor class storms). The recent geomagnetic storm watch issued by NOAA is currently classified as a G3 class.
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When will the geomagnetic storm occur?
Current forecasts predict possible G3 conditions between now and Oct. 6, but according to Nigro, he thinks the best time looks to be before dawn Saturday morning and probably even a better chance Saturday night for the Lehigh Valley.
Check out NOAA's 3-day forecast for the latest timings.
As a reminder, space weather is similar to Earth's weather in that it is unpredictable and challenging to forecast. While geomagnetic storm warnings of this level are uncommon, they can still sometimes fizzle to nothing.
"Possible impacts for both span from early on the 4th through early on the 6th, which aligns with SWPC issuing a G3 Watch for all three days," space weather forecaster and meteorologist Sara Housseal wrote in a post on X. "Timing and strength can vary, as always, but a key force here will be the opportunity for the first CME (X7) to pre-disturb the environment ahead of the second CME (X9), which could amplify activity,"
What's the best way to view the Northern Lights?
One of the best ways to view the aurora is with your smartphone.
The lens from your phone's camera will adjust for darker conditions and can pick up faint auroras that are not visible to the naked eye.
If you think you're seeing the aurora, you can also use a camera, preferably long exposure on a tripod. Unlike a camera, the aurora is largely composed of UV light, which is mostly not even visible to the naked eye.
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